News

How the New Trump Administration is Shaping the Commercial Real Estate Market

Fri Dec 06 2024

Earlier in November, at The Real Deal Forum in Miami, Leo Jacobs sat down with Nazar Nazarov, CEO of LendIQ, at the Jacobs PC booth. The main topic of the interview was how the new Trump administration could potentially impact the commercial real estate market. As the election results are expected to influence the economy, Nazarov provided valuable insights on how business confidence, regulatory changes, and market reactions are shaping the landscape for real estate investors.

Here’s a closer look at the critical takeaways from the session:

Leo:
Good afternoon, everyone. We’re back at Jacob V’s booth here at The Real Deal. I’m joined by Nazar from Lend IQ, and today we want to tackle the elephant in the room. The Trump Administration has won another term. Whether you’re for it or against it, we need to objectively discuss how this will impact the commercial real estate market. Nazar, what’s your take?

Nazar:
Thanks for having me, Leo. I think it’s undeniable that the Trump Administration has been positive for real estate. It’s no secret that Trump himself has been a real estate entrepreneur for over 45 years. His administration’s approach to less regulation and pro-business policies is creating a lot of confidence. You can feel it here in the room—it’s electric.

Leo:
Right. So you’re saying the market is feeding off this confidence. What’s driving that?

Nazar:
It’s about clarity and direction. People are optimistic because they expect less regulation and lower rates, especially with the Federal Reserve meeting happening today at 2:00 PM. The market thrives on predictability, and the Trump Administration projects a business-friendly environment. That kind of stability encourages more transaction volume and capital commitment.

Leo:
So you’re saying that this is empowering the market to make better and faster decisions?

Nazar:
Exactly. The market hates uncertainty. When there’s ambiguity, people hesitate. But with clarity—whether from the government or the Federal Reserve—you’ll see large institutions and family offices deploying more capital. The Trump Administration’s focus on reducing red tape gives investors confidence to move forward.

Leo:
And where does Lend IQ fit into this? How do you help capitalize on this momentum?

Nazar:
At Lend IQ, we’re a direct private lender focused on real estate investors. We handle everything from ground-up development and construction loans to land loans, fix-and-flip, and long-term rental loans. What’s exciting is that right after the election, we saw investors who had projects on the back burner come back to the table. That’s the kind of confidence shift we’re talking about.

Leo:
So you’re saying business confidence translates directly into increased activity for lenders like you?

Nazar:
Absolutely. When borrowers see a stable environment, they’re more willing to take action. The clearer the path ahead, the quicker deals close.

Leo:
Interesting. Now, let me play devil’s advocate for a moment. Critics of the Trump Administration argue that it’s too favorable toward large corporations and institutional investors. What about smaller investors? Are they being left out?

Nazar:
That’s a valid point, but it’s important to understand that not all investors are Blackstone or KKR. At Lend IQ, we work with many small to mid-sized investors—people who own three to five properties in their portfolio. Policies that reduce regulation benefit them too. For instance, eliminating the 1031 exchange, as was floated by the previous administration, would have been disastrous for these smaller investors.

Leo:
So, from your perspective, the metrics on the ground show that Trump’s policies enable faster decision-making, while another administration’s policies might create delays?

Nazar:
Correct. But let’s be clear—this doesn’t mean no regulation at all. Regulation is necessary to keep bad actors out of the market. Overregulation, however, stifles growth. It’s about striking the right balance.

Leo:
And that brings us to the Federal Reserve. What do you think their role is in this equation? Will a basis point adjustment have a significant impact on borrowing and investment?

Nazar:
Great question. When the Federal Reserve lowered rates in the past, the market reacted even before the official announcement because the market is forward-looking. Now, under a Trump Administration, we expect rates to either stabilize or decrease slightly, depending on economic conditions. The market’s response will depend on how the Fed communicates its strategy moving forward.

Leo:
So, it’s not just about rate changes, but about the overall economic confidence?

Nazar:
Exactly. Rates are just one piece of the puzzle. If the market believes the economy is strong and inflation is under control, rates will naturally adjust. Investors will act based on that broader outlook, not just the Fed’s movements.

Leo:
Let me challenge you one more time. Do you think Trump’s business background is enough to keep this momentum going?

Nazar:
Trump’s business acumen is an asset, no doubt. He understands the nuances of deal-making and how to instill confidence in the market. That said, he doesn’t have a magic wand. Success will depend on how well his administration balances deregulation with maintaining a fair and competitive market.

Leo:
Fair point. Any final thoughts?

Nazar:
Just this: Confidence is the lifeblood of any market, especially commercial real estate. The Trump Administration’s pro-business stance is giving investors that confidence. If the Federal Reserve complements that with smart rate adjustments, we’re looking at a very dynamic period for real estate.

Leo:
Thanks for your insights, Nazar. It’s always a pleasure speaking with you.

Nazar:
Likewise, Leo. Thanks for having me.

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